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A new study published on 17 February by Équilibre des Énergies (EdEn) concludes that electric heavy-duty trucks could become cost-competitive as early as 2030, provided current technological and economic trends continue. The study assesses the evolution of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of different truck technologies up to 2040. It compares battery-electric trucks with diesel, natural gas (GNV), HVO, B100 and hydrogen-powered vehicles. According to EdEn, electric trucks could overtake competing technologies in terms of TCO by 2030, largely due to continued technical and economic progress in batteries and vehicle manufacturing.

However, the study acknowledges that “the challenge is significant,” noting that electric trucks account for only around 2% of new heavy-duty vehicle registrations in 2025. In EdEn’s view, the key barriers are no longer technological but primarily economic and political.  The association therefore calls on the French state to maintain support measures for transport operators at least until 2030. These include energy savings certificates (CEE) and tax deductions for electric trucks. EdEn also recommends facilitating the deployment of charging infrastructure, particularly at logistics depots, as foreseen under the Iricc framework. At the same time, it argues against introducing a gradual reduction from 2031 in the share of electricity recognised under the support mechanism.  Regarding alternative fuels, the study suggests that B100, HVO100 and bioGNV should continue to be supported in the short term. However, their taxation should progressively be realigned with that of conventional fuels.