26 May 2023


At the ITF Summit in Leipzig the ITF launched today it’s 2023 Transport Outlook.  This edition of the ITF Transport Outlook examines the impacts of different policy measures on global transport demand and carbon dioxide emissions to 2050. The analysis covers the movement of passengers and freight across all transport modes. A particular s on infrastructure investment decisions and what different policy scenarios mean for them. 

The analysis is based on two distinct scenarios for the future of transport, simulated with the ITF’s in-house transport models. The Current Ambition scenario assumes policies to decarbonise transport continue along their current pathway and considers the implications for transport demand, carbon dioxide emissions and further aspects over the next three decades. The High Ambition scenario assumes policies focused on accelerating the decarbonisation of the transport sector and their impact.

Freight mode choice is mostly unresponsive to pricing measures. The exceptions are road and port access modes in multimodal trips. Coherent pricing policies can ensure that the most sustainable of the viable modes are chosen. Carbon pricing can encourage a move away from the most carbon-intensive fleets and make low-carbon fuels more cost-competitive. Regardless of the pathway chosen, the transport system will require significant investment in the coming decades. Core infrastructure investment needs to meet projected demand are estimated at 1.7% of global GDP annually through to 2050 under the Current Ambition scenario, and marginally less (1.6%) under the High Ambition scenario. However, the rollout of electric vehicle charging networks, which is essential for electric vehicle uptake, will require significant additional investment.

The report can be downloaded from the ITF website.