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Over the past few days, ocean carriers have informed customers about anticipated changes to surcharges in 2025 related to the implementation of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the introduction of FuelEU Maritime targets. Most shipping lines estimate that these surcharges will double to offset the additional costs incurred.

Several factors contribute to the expected increase in emission surcharges. First, under the gradual phase-in of the EU ETS, carriers are required to pay for the equivalent of 40% of their emissions in 2024, rising to 70% in 2025, with full auctioning of emissions starting in 2026 and beyond. This alone results in a 75% cost increase, assuming carriers’ GHG emissions and ETS allowance prices remain stable. However, stability in ETS prices is unlikely due to increased demand and a reduction in the number of available allowances.

Second, many carriers are likely to cover the additional costs arising from the FuelEU Maritime requirements - mandating a 2% reduction in the carbon intensity of ships by 2025 compared to 2020 levels, achieved through measures such as slow steaming and/or the use of alternative fuels - under their existing ETS surcharge schemes. This approach is expected to substantially increase surcharge costs, with estimates from ocean carriers suggesting they could nearly double overall.

CLECAT acknowledges these estimates but urges carriers to provide greater transparency regarding the actual additional costs incurred by EU environmental regulations. As reported by The Loadstar this week, some carriers have announced changes to their service routes, adding one or more calls at non-EU ports closer to EU borders. While this strategy could help reduce their ETS compliance costs, it may introduce operational challenges such as congestion and delays. This form of "ship evasion" could also undermine the competitiveness of EU ports, particularly those located near non-EU ports, which are likely to experience a significant decline in traffic. CLECAT stresses that ETS surcharges must not become a revenue model for carriers at the expense of their customers or the broader goal of decarbonizing maritime shipping.

Source: Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, The Loadstar