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Early 2026 has brought cautious signals of movement on the Suez Canal route, but no broad return of container shipping. While Maersk has confirmed this week limited test sailings, other major carriers, including Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE), have made clear that they are not yet resuming regular transits. Both carriers stress that security considerations remain decisive. Hapag-Lloyd notes that it sees insufficient stability at this stage, emphasising that the safety of crews and vessels remains its highest priority, while ONE underlines that any return will be based on a thorough assessment of security risks and operational feasibility.

Since late 2025, CMA CGM has been the most visible first mover, sending several vessels through the canal, including the 24,000-teu Jacques Saade, the largest container ship to transit Suez since the start of the Red Sea crisis. In early 2026, CMA CGM is expected to reroute its Indamex service between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast via Suez, supported by French naval presence in the region. According to port economist Bart Kuipers of Erasmus University Rotterdam, these early sailings should not yet be interpreted as a wider market shift. Initial transits reportedly involved largely empty containers and benefited from naval escort, while fully loaded Asia–Europe services would entail significantly higher financial and security risks.

Industry expectations for 2026 therefore remain cautious. Most analysts currently see a gradual, selective return as the most plausible path, with some premium or niche services using the Suez route while others continue to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.  The Suez Canal Authority expects traffic to recover gradually over the course of 2026, with volumes approaching normal levels only in the second half of the year, after earlier expectations of a full comeback by the end of 2025 proved overly optimistic.

Even if security conditions improve, the sector faces another structural challenge: looming overcapacity. Container demand grew strongly in 2024 and 2025, supported by post-crisis trade recovery, but growth is expected to slow to around 2% in 2026. At the same time, fleet capacity is projected to expand by around 3% as vessels ordered during the high-profit pandemic years are delivered. As Kuipers observes, carriers “built aggressively” during the boom, and a return to smoother Suez operations could actually intensify competitive pressure in a market where capacity growth is already outpacing demand. For freight forwarders and shippers, this combination of geopolitical uncertainty and structural oversupply suggests that volatility in rates, routing and service reliability is likely to remain a defining feature of 2026.

Source  Nieuwsblad Transport, Loadstar