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According to a report published by Allianz Research approximately 1,150 cargo-carrying vessels with a combined vessel and cargo value estimated at $125 billion remain stranded or delayed following the closure of the Strait. The affected fleet represents around 29 million gross tonnes of cargo and involves as many as 20,000 seafarers awaiting the resumption of normal shipping operations.

Although a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran has raised hopes that maritime traffic may gradually resume, Allianz cautions that the reopening of the Strait alone will not immediately restore normal operations. The insurer notes that strong assurances regarding the safety of navigation will be required before shipowners and operators are willing to return to pre-conflict traffic levels, which typically reach around 140 vessel transits per day.

The report highlights that while marine insurance coverage has remained available throughout the crisis, albeit at significantly higher premiums, the primary concern for shipping companies has been the safety of crews and vessels operating in a conflict zone.

The situation continues to have important implications for global supply chains. Freight forwarders and logistics operators continue to monitor developments closely as shipping lines assess when and how normal routing patterns can be restored.

Industry analysts have also warned that restoring confidence and clearing the accumulated vessel backlog may take considerable time, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully. Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, reported by Danish business media Finans, noted that approximately 10% of global container shipping capacity remains affected by the blockade. He warned that the market disruption cannot be reversed overnight, even in the event of a sustained ceasefire. A recent memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, provided for a 60-day ceasefire and the reopening of the strait while negotiations on a broader settlement continue.

According to Xeneta’s assessment, container shipping capacity through the Strait of Hormuz may not return to normal levels before mid-September at the earliest. However, Xeneta notes that previous attempts to reach a lasting agreement between the two countries have failed, highlighting the uncertainty that still surrounds the situation.

The fragility of the situation has been confirmed once more as evacuation operations through the Strait of Hormuz have been paused following yesterday’s attack on a containership in the besieged waterway. In response, the IMO called for safety guarantees to remain in place for vessels on the evacuation list.