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Full-year air cargo data for 2025, published by IATA point to a solid performance for the sector despite an unsettled global trade environment. Demand and capacity growth remained broadly aligned over the year, confirming air cargo’s continued importance for global supply chains. However, recent market analysis suggests that headline figures alone may not fully capture emerging structural pressures.

This caution was highlighted last week by The Loadstar, which noted that a relatively strong start to 2026 risks obscuring underlying weakness and growing volatility in the air cargo market. While January data showed resilient volumes and stable load factors, analysts warned that this performance may be influenced by temporary factors rather than a clear signal of sustained market strength.

According to IATA, global air cargo demand in 2025 increased by just over 3% year on year, with capacity expanding at a similar pace. European carriers recorded comparable trends, with demand and capacity growth closely matched. Throughout the year, air cargo benefited from continued e-commerce activity and from shippers adjusting supply chains in response to tariff uncertainty and geopolitical developments, including front-loading shipments to mitigate trade risks.

However, as The Loadstar reported, this apparent resilience may be masking mounting pressure from weakening e-commerce flows, seasonal distortions and tariff-driven volatility. January performance, in particular, was influenced by factors such as the Lunar New Year and short-term trade dynamics, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions about underlying demand trends. Analysts also pointed to the risk that operators exposed to large amounts of capacity could face challenges if demand softens as the year progresses.

Taken together, these signals suggest a market that remains operationally robust but increasingly sensitive to policy shifts, trade disruptions and changes in consumer demand.