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Escalating tensions in the Middle East and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz are already reshaping global shipping patterns. As security risks intensify, carriers are reassessing how to maintain reliable freight flows to and within the region while managing rising operational costs and growing supply chain uncertainty.

The impact is increasingly visible in container freight markets. According to market data from Xeneta, spot freight rates have started to rise across several major routes. Rates from China to the UK have already increased by around 9% compared with levels observed before the recent escalation involving the United States and Israel. Even sharper increases are visible on routes closer to the conflict area, with spot rates from China to Port of Salalah rising by around 28%, while services from China to Port of Colombo have increased by approximately 17%.

These shifts reflect the disruption created by the security situation in the Gulf. With ports inside the Persian Gulf increasingly difficult to access due to security threats linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, carriers are redirecting services to alternative regional hubs. Salalah has initially emerged as the closest viable option, although continued drone incidents in the region are pushing operators to look further afield, including Colombo, which is already experiencing rising demand and higher rates.

The ripple effects are now spreading far beyond the immediate conflict zone. Analysts point out that regional crises can quickly cascade through global supply chains, triggering congestion, longer sailing distances and rising freight prices even on routes geographically distant from the original disruption, including the critical Asia–Europe corridor.

Beyond freight rate volatility, logistics operators are increasingly facing additional surcharges linked directly to the conflict (see above). Higher insurance premiums, longer routing distances, security measures and energy price increases are already feeding through into operational costs.

Industry analysts warn that rising bunker fuel prices may further accelerate the upward pressure on freight costs. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally transits the Strait of Hormuz, meaning disruptions in the area quickly translate into higher energy prices. If the situation persists, increasing bunker costs, war-risk insurance premiums and operational disruptions could push overall transport costs significantly higher across global supply chains.

Insurance markets remain operational but under pressure. The Lloyd’s Market Association has indicated that vessels can still obtain war-risk insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz, although coverage has become significantly more expensive and harder to secure. While some ships continue to pass through the strait, many vessels remain in the Persian Gulf as operators assess the evolving security risks.

Sources: Nieuwsblad Transport, Loadstar