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Recent developments following a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran may provide some short-term relief to air cargo markets, although a full recovery in capacity and rates is expected to take time.

According to Xeneta, while the ceasefire may ease immediate operational pressures, structural disruptions to capacity and network operations are likely to persist. Airlines will require time to restore flight schedules and reposition aircraft, while airspace restrictions in parts of the region remain in place.

Airfreight rates on key trade lanes affected by the conflict have remained elevated. Year-on-year increases have been particularly significant on routes linking South Asia to Europe (+105%) and Europe to the Middle East (+87%). Capacity constraints, driven by rerouting and reduced operations in the region, continue to exert upward pressure on prices.

Market uncertainty is also affecting shipper behaviour, with many operators reluctant to revert to Middle Eastern hubs given the fragile nature of the ceasefire and ongoing geopolitical risks. At the same time, jet fuel prices and insurance considerations are expected to remain volatile, further influencing operational decisions. In addition, the recovery of belly hold capacity may be slower, as it depends on the rebound of passenger traffic through the Gulf region.

Source: Aircargonews.com