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Carriers’ latest attempts to push through General Rate Increases (GRIs) and Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) on the Asia–Europe trade lane appear to be losing momentum, with little sign of lasting impact. Market analysts suggest that only significant reductions in capacity are likely to prevent further rate erosion in September.

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) underlines the fragility of current pricing. For the week ending 28 August, spot rates on Shanghai–Rotterdam fell by 10% and Shanghai–Genoa by 5%, contributing to the 11th consecutive week of global declines. The WCI composite index has now slipped to its lowest level since late 2023.

FreightWaves reports that despite carriers filing GRIs and PSS for 1 September, gains have been modest. By the end of August, rates on the Asia–North Europe route had fallen by 6% to around US$3,100 per FEU – levels not seen since late June.

One factor is the limited use of blank sailings. According to Drewry’s cancelled sailings tracker, just 6% of East–West services are blanked in weeks 36–40, with only about a fifth of these on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean routes. Many in the industry argue that such measures are insufficient to balance supply and demand, and that shippers should expect continued softening unless deeper cuts are made.

Temporary congestion in Singapore and some Mediterranean hubs earlier this summer provided short-lived support to carriers but did little to address the structural oversupply in the market: Carriers continue to introduce new tonnage, with global fleet capacity expected to grow by around 8% in 2025, while demand growth is forecast to be less than half of that. This imbalance is likely to weigh more heavily in the fourth quarter.

In this context, GRIs and PSS look increasingly like short-term measures to bolster revenue, but they will be difficult to sustain unless carriers withdraw more capacity through blank sailings, slow steaming, or other means.

For shippers, the situation brings mixed effects. While lower rates reduce transport costs, market volatility remains high, and sudden capacity withdrawals could result in sharp price swings. For carriers, the options are equally challenging: either maintain capacity and risk further price erosion, or cut back more aggressively and lose volumes in an already weak demand environment.  Looking ahead, the direction of Asia–Europe spot rates in September will depend less on announced price increases and more on whether carriers match their pricing ambitions with the necessary discipline in capacity management.