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European road freight markets showed a clear divergence between contract and spot rates in the final quarter of 2025, according to the latest Ti x Upply x IRU European Road Freight Rates Index. Contract rates increased steadily, reflecting expectations of a gradual recovery in demand, while spot rates remained largely flat amid continued short-term uncertainty.

Contract rates rose to an index level of 136.9 in Q4 2025, marking a 2.6 point increase quarter on quarter and a 3.1 point rise compared to the same period a year earlier. Spot rates, by contrast, reached 135.1, up just 0.3 points from the previous quarter and down 3.3 points year on year. This gap highlights a market in which longer-term commitments are strengthening while short-term pricing remains constrained.

Operating costs increased moderately in Q4 2025, adding further upward pressure to contract rates. Average European diesel prices rose by 0.66% quarter on quarter, while driver costs increased by 1.28%. Finance and insurance costs recorded the sharpest rise, increasing by more than 4%. Tolling is also becoming a more significant element of total cost of ownership, with toll charges per kilometre exceeding fuel costs in countries such as Austria and Hungary.

Despite these cost increases, overall sentiment in the road freight market softened slightly toward the end of the year. The Ti x Upply x IRU Road Freight Sentiment Index declined by 2.0 points to 10.7 in Q4 2025, indicating a moderation in bullish expectations. Nevertheless, the balance of sentiment remains tilted towards higher rates, with most market participants still anticipating some degree of price increase, albeit at a slower pace in early 2026.

Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 points to modest upward pressure on freight rates across Europe. Inflation is expected to ease to just under 2%, supporting purchasing power, while a stronger euro and lower energy costs should help stimulate consumption. At the same time, slower real wage growth and continued geopolitical uncertainty are likely to temper the pace of recovery. Economic performance is expected to vary across regions, with southern EU countries continuing to outperform, albeit less strongly than in 2025, while Germany is forecast to rebound and France is projected to grow by around 0.9%. Overall EU growth is expected to reach 1.4% in 2026, according to the European Commission.