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Spot rates for container shipping on the Asia–Europe trade have declined this week, with the Drewry World Container Index reporting a 9% drop on routes from Asia to Northern Europe. This confirms that the expected sharp rate increases following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East have not materialised.

After peaking at the end of March at around USD 2,552 per forty-foot container on the Shanghai–Rotterdam route, rates have now fallen to approximately USD 2,308. While geopolitical risks initially pushed prices upward, the overall impact on Asia–Europe flows has remained limited, particularly when compared to the extreme rate levels seen during the COVID-19 period.

One of the key factors behind the current trend is continued overcapacity in the container shipping market. Carriers entered the year anticipating a challenging environment, with a large number of new vessels entering service and limited scrapping of older tonnage.

Despite ongoing disruptions in the Middle East, the impact on global operations has been relatively contained. According to Linerlytica, around 121 container vessels remain idle in the Persian Gulf, representing approximately 405,000 TEU of capacity. However, a significant share of these vessels are deployed on intra-Gulf services or linked to Iran. The number of vessels effectively seeking to exit the region via the Strait of Hormuz is estimated at around 45 ships, corresponding to roughly 275,000 TEU. Importantly, widespread congestion has not materialised, with disruptions largely limited to ports in the Gulf region and parts of India.

Rate developments on other trades show a more mixed picture. While prices on the Asia–Mediterranean route have also declined slightly, transpacific rates have increased, with Shanghai–Los Angeles up by 9%. On the transatlantic, rates have risen sharply, particularly on the Rotterdam–New York route, where reduced capacity has led to a 25% increase compared to mid-March levels.

Overall, the latest developments highlight the continued volatility in container shipping markets, where geopolitical risks, capacity dynamics and regional imbalances interact.

At the same time, emergency fuel surcharges are increasing significantly across trades. Carriers are introducing additional charges of around USD 300 per 40ft, with further increases of up to USD 400 announced. While these surcharges are clearly driving up total transport costs — particularly on the transpacific and transatlantic — they are not reflected in higher base rates on the Asia–Europe trade.

Sources: Nieuwsblad Transport, the Loadstar