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According Drewry’s Container Market Outlook webinar this week, global container shipping profitability is expected to fall sharply, with the sector barely remaining above break-even in 2026. Drewry experts estimate that the combined profit of all container carriers worldwide will amount to around USD 1 billion this year, a dramatic decline compared to previous years.

In 2024, the industry still generated approximately USD 60 billion in profit, while at the peak of the pandemic-driven boom in 2022, profits reached a historic USD 300 billion. In the years before the COVID-19 crisis, annual profits of around USD 30 billion were considered normal. While final figures for 2025 have yet to be published, Drewry confirmed that the container sector still benefited from strong market conditions last year. Global container throughput grew by more than 5%, surpassing 1 billion TEU for the first time in history. Looking ahead, growth is expected to slow significantly. According to Simon Heaney, Senior Manager Container Research at Drewry, container demand growth is forecast at just 1.8% in 2026, before stabilising at a more traditional rate of 2–3% in subsequent years. He noted that these projections do not yet factor in the potential impact of a renewed trade conflict between the EU and the United States. How US trade policy will affect the market in 2026 remains difficult to predict.

Drewry warns that a rapid and widespread return to the Suez route could trigger a sharp decline in container freight rates, particularly on the spot market. A more gradual return is therefore seen as the most likely and prudent scenario. Even under this cautious approach, Drewry expects global container freight rates, including both spot and contract rates, to fall by an average of 17% in 2026, following an 18% decline last year. According to Philip Damas, Director of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, around 60% of global container volumes are transported under long-term contracts, with the remaining 40% exposed to spot market volatility.

Capacity growth in 2026 is expected to remain relatively limited at around 3%, due to lower ordering activity in 2023, but Drewry describes this as the calm before the storm. Heavy ordering in 2024 and 2025 is set to translate into capacity growth of between 6% and 9% in the period 2027–2029, which would significantly outpace expected demand growth unless there is a substantial increase in cargo volumes.

Overall, Drewry’s outlook points to a structurally challenging period for container shipping, characterised by slowing demand growth, declining freight rates and looming overcapacity. For shippers, freight forwarders and logistics service providers, the coming years are therefore likely to remain volatile, underlining the importance of flexible contracting strategies and careful capacity management.