AIRFREIGHT RATES SURGE
Drewry reported this week a sharp escalation in global airfreight rates, highlighting how geopolitical tensions and operational constraints are once again putting significant pressure on air cargo markets. According to its latest Airfreight Insight, rates on key corridors have surged dramatically between February and March 2026, in some cases approaching levels last seen during the peak of the Covid-19 crisis.
The most striking increase has been observed on the Shanghai–Dubai route, where rates jumped by as much as 95%, reaching $8.60 per kg. Should fuel surcharges continue to rise, prices could soon exceed the pandemic-era peak of $9.40. This development reflects a broader trend across the market, with approximately half of the global routes monitored by Drewry experiencing month-on-month increases of 20% or more.
At the core of this surge lies a combination of reduced effective capacity and sharply rising operating costs. The armed conflict with Iran has disrupted airspace and airline operations across the Middle East, directly affecting key global hubs. Major carriers such as Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad Airways have scaled back flight operations, contributing to tighter capacity across critical trade lanes. Given that routes connected to the Middle East account for roughly 15–18% of global airfreight traffic and capacity, the ripple effects are being felt far beyond the region.
Cost pressures are intensifying through surcharges. Fuel surcharges have risen sharply, in some cases by nearly 290% month-on-month, such as on shipments from Singapore to London. Security surcharges have also increased significantly, particularly on flows from the Persian Gulf to Europe. Even on routes less directly exposed to the conflict, such as from India to Spain, overall rates have risen notably, driven largely by higher fuel costs.
More broadly, the situation highlights the continued vulnerability of global supply chains to regional disruptions. As seen in previous crises, shocks in strategically important regions can quickly translate into global price pressures, underlining the need for resilience, diversification, and well-functioning international connectivity.