06 June 2025

AIR CARGO GROWTH CONTINUES IN APRIL

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has sharply lowered its forecast for global air cargo volumes in 2025, citing growing economic uncertainty and mounting trade barriers. IATA now expects the global market to reach 69 million tonnes this year—down from its previous estimate of 72.5 million tonnes. This represents only a marginal year-on-year growth of 0.6%.

At the same time, freight revenues are projected to decline by 4.7% compared to 2024, amounting to a total of USD 142 billion. IATA attributes the more pessimistic outlook to “trade-restrictive protectionist measures” introduced by the U.S. administration in April, including temporary hikes in import tariffs. According to IATA, such measures are dampening global economic momentum and casting a shadow over trade-related air freight activity.

Despite this overall negative outlook, IATA’s latest monthly market analysis, released on 29 May, showed that air cargo demand continued to grow in April 2025. Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with international demand up by 6.8%. Available cargo capacity also rose, with ACTKs increasing by 6.3% overall and 6.9% on international routes. European carriers reported a 2.9% year-on-year increase in demand, while available capacity expanded by 5.5%. However, some trade lanes saw stagnation or slight declines, notably the Middle East–Europe and intra-European corridors.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted that April's growth was supported by seasonal consumer demand, lower jet fuel prices, and forwarders bringing forward shipments in anticipation of tariff changes. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the global air freight market faces significant headwinds due to policy-driven disruptions in trade.

Source: IATA