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A recent study by Transport & Mobility Leuven (TML), carried out for ACEA in partnership with Panteia, revisits the Commission’s modal shift policy,  one the longest-standing pillars of EU transport policy. At a time when zero-emission trucks are entering the market at increasing scale and digital technologies are transforming logistics operations, the study questions whether shifting freight away from road to rail and inland waterways should still be treated as a policy objective in itself.

For decades, European transport strategies have promoted modal shift as a key pathway to sustainability. The underlying rationale was clear: rail and inland waterways were considered structurally more environmentally friendly than road transport, and public policy therefore sought to encourage a rebalancing of freight flows. Yet, despite sustained political attention, regulatory initiatives and substantial infrastructure investment, the expected structural shift has largely failed to materialise. Road freight continues to dominate the European market. While rail volumes have grown modestly in absolute terms, they have not kept pace with overall freight growth and have therefore lost modal share over the past three decades. Inland waterways have experienced a decline both in share and, in some cases, in absolute volumes.

The study examines whether the traditional justification for modal shift still holds in light of technological change. It analyses cost structures, externalities, infrastructure investment patterns and emerging innovations. One of the key observations concerns the different cost compositions of road and rail freight. In rail, capital costs such as rolling stock and infrastructure access charges are the dominant cost drivers. In road freight, personnel costs represent the largest share, with energy costs ranking second. As road transport transitions towards zero-emission vehicles, the total cost of ownership is expected to evolve significantly. Although battery-electric trucks involve higher upfront investment, lower energy costs are projected to offset a substantial part of these capital expenditures over time. This development may further strengthen the competitive position of road freight.

Zero-emission trucks will significantly reduce climate emissions, air pollutants and noise externalities, which historically justified strong policy efforts to shift freight away from road. Rail is likely to remain the most energy-efficient mode per tonne-kilometre, but the relative advantage in terms of external costs may become less pronounced as electrification progresses. In such a context, the study argues that sustainability gains should be pursued through effective decarbonisation across all modes rather than through prescriptive modal targets.

The overarching conclusion of the study is that modal shift should not be pursued as an end in itself. Instead, the researchers advocate for a mode-neutral and outcome-oriented policy framework that focuses on fairly pricing external costs across all transport modes and enabling market-driven choices that support both sustainability and efficiency.