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This week, The Loadstar reported growing tensions in global supply chains as emergency fuel surcharges introduced by carriers raise concerns among shippers about transparency and proportionality. The developments occur amid escalating geopolitical risks affecting energy markets, in particular the continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. While global oil inventories remain relatively stable at first glance, supply is unevenly distributed, leaving certain regions significantly more exposed than others. Countries heavily reliant on imports for their energy consumption are particularly at risk, especially in a scenario where major inventory holders or refiners prioritise domestic supply. In such cases, shortages could emerge rapidly, triggering sharp price increases.

Recent analysis from Drewry highlights the scale of the potential impact. At a webinar last week, Drewry outlined scenarios ranging from a short-term disruption to a prolonged 12-month blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with significant implications for oil prices, trade flows, and tanker demand. In the near term, tighter supply conditions would likely push prices upward and accelerate inventory drawdowns, while weaker demand could weigh on crude trade and freight rates. However, in a more severe scenario, the removal of around 10% of global oil supply for an extended period could drive prices sharply higher, fuel inflation across key economies, and dampen global demand. Such a development would not only affect energy markets, but also slow trade growth and increase pressure on already fragile supply chains.

Against this uncertain outlook, carriers have begun implementing additional charges to offset rising fuel costs. The Loadstar reports that Maersk has introduced a 35% fuel surcharge on inland transport in Korea, alongside surcharges across several European countries, including Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Austria. MSC has similarly updated its emergency fuel surcharge, applying it to cargo flows from the Red Sea and East Africa to Northern Europe as well as other regions. These measures reflect a broader trend of carriers seeking to manage cost volatility in an increasingly unpredictable operating environment.

However, the introduction of these surcharges is increasingly being questioned by cargo owners. Some shippers have expressed doubts as to whether the additional charges fully reflect genuine cost increases, or whether they risk becoming a form of opportunistic pricing. For shippers and logistics operators, the key issue is whether cost pass-through mechanisms are applied in a fair, consistent, and verifiable manner. For freight forwarders, these developments underline the need for scrutiny of surcharge mechanisms and clear communication with clients. As volatility persists, the ability to explain cost drivers, manage expectations, and maintain operational resilience will be critical to navigating the months ahead.