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Recent data from Sea Intelligence reveals a notable improvement in global liner schedule reliability, reaching its highest level in 17 months. According to April figures, overall reliability stood at 58.7%, the best performance since November 2023. Notably, the Gemini Cooperation, formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, has emerged as a clear leader, with both carriers exceeding the 70% reliability mark. Maersk topped the list with 73.4%, followed closely by Hapag-Lloyd at 72.3%, while MSC ranked third with 60.7%.

The analysis highlights a growing divergence between carrier groupings. While Gemini carriers strive to meet their 90% target across key trades—including transpacific and Asia-Europe services; members of the Ocean Alliance continued to underperform, with reliability rates dipping below 50%. Evergreen, in particular, recorded the lowest rate at 46.5%.

The impact of improved reliability is not only operational but also strategic. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jensen recently noted that consistent schedule performance enables shippers to reduce safety stocks, thereby lowering overall inventory costs and improving supply chain efficiency.

Meanwhile, the container freight market is showing moderate upward movement, reflecting shifting trade dynamics and recent carrier capacity adjustments. According to the Drewry World Container Index, freight rates in the third week of May edged up 2%, reaching $2,276 per 40ft container. Although this remains significantly below pandemic-era highs, it is still 60% above the 2019 pre-pandemic average.

Spot rates increased most notably on East-West trade lanes, with Shanghai–Genoa and Shanghai–New York both up 4%, while Shanghai–Los Angeles rose by 2%. Rates on backhaul routes, including Rotterdam–New York and Rotterdam–Shanghai, remained steady.

The uptick in rates is attributed to carriers adjusting capacity in response to growing cargo demand from Asia, particularly as geopolitical trade shifts between the US and China continue to evolve. Analysts expect further upward pressure on rates in the coming weeks, as tight capacity and schedule integrity become increasingly valuable to shippers navigating complex supply chain dynamics.

These developments underline the broader market shift toward service reliability and disciplined capacity management. For freight forwarders and logistics providers, the improving reliability and stabilising rates may offer new opportunities for more predictable planning and value-added service offerings to clients.

Sources: Loadstar, Drewry