MAERSK AND MSC AGREE TO DISBAND THE 2M ALLIANCE
Maersk and MSC have announced this week they have mutually agreed to terminate, effective in January 2025, the present 2M alliance. Both companies are expected to pursue their individual strategies.
The joint statement acknowledges that “much has changed since the two companies signed the 10-year agreement in 2015.” Indeed, “the two companies have been on very different growth paths for some time. MSC has been getting its tanks on the lawn by aggressively raiding the second-hand and charter markets, as well as splurging on new orders. Maersk, on the hand, has focused on its vertical integration strategy and has not sought to defend its number one rank, notes Drewry’s analyst Simon Heaney in its Weekly Container Insight.
While it seems plausible that MSC – with its current capacity of 4.6m TEU and a huge orderbook, of 1.8m TEU, would clearly become a standalone carrier across major trade lanes of the world, Maersk (current capacity of 4.2m TEU) would need to find partner(s) on the Asia-Europe, transpacific and transatlantic trade lanes. The possibility to join one of the two remaining alliances seems difficult, as its fleet size would prevent competition authorities to approve such operation, and considering that both alliances are contractually committed beyond the termination of 2M in 2025 (Ocean Alliance runs to 2027 and THE Alliance to 2030). Nevertheless, Simon Heaney considers that this could also trigger a radical shake-up of other alliances. “One other scenario could see Maersk muddle through with ad hoc vessel sharing and slot-swap agreements. Another is that they quickly ramp up their fleet size via S&P and the charter market,” he added. Therefore, the main question for Maersk is whether it can persist with its integrator strategy and at the same time maintain its liner connectivity.