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On 3 February, Upply, Ti, and IRU jointly published the latest version of their European road freight rates development benchmark, noting that freight rates are showing cautious signs of recovery in Q4 2024.

The report indicates that the spot rate index edged up to 123.9 points, a 0.5-point increase from Q3, although still 1 point down compared to last year. Similarly, the contract rate index rose to 128.9 points, gaining 2.8 points quarter on quarter despite a 1.4-point annual drop. These figures suggest that, after a prolonged period of decline, the market may be nearing its bottom while still remaining above pre-pandemic levels. The gap between spot and contract rates has persisted for seven consecutive quarters, now standing at 5.0 index points—slightly narrower than the 5.4-point gap observed a year ago. This divergence is occurring amid a complex backdrop where high operating costs and capacity constraints are keeping rates stable. Notably, the driver shortage across Europe with currently around 500,000 unfilled truck driver positions and the rebound of diesel prices after reaching their lowest levels in late 2024, contribute to an overall cost base that remains under pressure.

Economic indicators add further nuance to the picture. Although overall demand remains weak—with retail trade and manufacturing still facing headwinds—there have been modest recoveries in port throughput and retail volumes in the lead-up to the holiday season. The authors anticipate that moderate rate increases will persist into 2025, driven by ongoing capacity constraints and steadily rising labour costs, even as consumer spending remains limited.