EU ON TRACK TO MEET 2030 SAF TARGETS, BUT INVESTMENT GAPS PERSIST
Last week, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) published its ‘State of the EU Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) Market in 2023’ report, offering insights into their development across the EU. The report, a precursor to EASA’s first annual technical report due in 2025, evaluates the SAF market in preparation for the mandatory SAF blending targets established by the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation.
The ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation mandates a 2% SAF share at EU airports by 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030, with a sub-target of 0.7% for synthetic SAF.The minimum SAF share required by the legislation in 2030 is estimated at 2.8 million tonnes, based on a total fuel consumption forecast of 46 million tonnes, of which 6% must be SAF to meet its objectives.
According to the report, EU production capacity is projected to meet the 2030 SAF target, with 3.2 million tonnes expected under a “realistic” scenario and up to 5.5 million tonnes under an “optimistic” one. However, EASA warns that swift action is needed to achieve the minimum synthetic fuel share of 0.7% by 2030 and 1.2% by 2032 (equivalent to 0.6 million tonnes). Additionally, while the EU has a "solid pipeline" of synthetic aviation fuel projects, estimated at 1.1 million tonnes by 2030, the report notes that currently ‘’none of these facilities had reached a final investment decision’’.
The report highlights the cost disparity between SAF and conventional jet fuel, with an estimated average production cost for SAF in 2023 (excluding synthetic fuels) of €2768 per tonne compared to €816 per tonne for traditional kerosene. For synthetic fuels, the cost rises to €7500 per tonne. To meet the 2035 target of 20% SAF share, EASA emphasises the need to scale up production and address investment gaps.
The full report can be accessed here.