DREWRY EXPECTS HIGH FREIGHT RATES IN 2025
The Loadstar reported this week on shipping analyst Drewry’s predictions for the shipping market next year. Despite the increase in fleet capacity with newbuilds entering service, Drewry anticipates further market disruptions that could offset any potential decrease in freight rates.
As the possibility of more U.S. East Coast port strikes remains uncertain, the maritime consultancy created scenarios both with and without a strike in January. In both cases, they found that freight rates would continue to rise. Port strikes “will have significant inflationary impact on spot rates, not just on the U.S.-connected trade, but also by contagion on other trades,” said Drewry’s Philip Damas. He also noted that the further phasing-in of ETS in 2025, when 70% of verified emissions will need to be covered by ETS allowances (up from 40%), will contribute to increasing shipping costs for shippers. Mr. Damas added: “Even if the Suez Canal reopens, we do not expect container freight rates will go back to pre-pandemic levels.”
On top of the strain from the Red Sea and possible strikes across the US east coast, next year’s reconfiguration of shipping alliances is expected to cause an additional setback, with Mr Damas describing MSC as “a sort of quasi single-carrier network alliance”. “Watch for the schedule integrity of Gemini, which will be consumer-dependent,” he advised. “We have said in the past based on our experience, that container transhipment operations can quickly get caught up with delays and missed connections.”
Source: The Loadstar