Newsletters

Shipping analyst Drewry reported last week that 2025 is likely to mark the fifth consecutive year of high volatility in ocean freight rates, affecting both the contract rates and spot rates segments. Over the last two years, average contract and spot rates on the major East-West routes decreased by about 60% in 2023 and are expected to rise by about 20% year-on-year in 2024. Drewry anticipates that while anticipated US port strikes in Q1 2025 will make US-bound contract rates rise in 2025, spot rates on East-West routes will decline in the second half of 2025.

Since 2021, the shipping industry has experienced unprecedented volatility in contract rates, fuelled by the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath. The standard deviations of average contract rates have increased more than tenfold since early 2021, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the market. While contract rates were quite stable in 2024, capacity shortages on selected routes resulted in shipping customers having to accept substantial Red Sea and Peak Season surcharges.

Meanwhile, the Loadstar reported that North European ports continue to struggle to clear backlogs: Hamburg’s port modernisation programme at HHLA’s Altenwerder and Burchardkai terminals is ongoing and has forced the operator to introduce controls on export containers out of the former. Heavy fog in Rotterdam could lead to lengthening vessel queues, while in Antwerp, maintenance work on the Belgian port’s quays is expected to last until the third week of December, contributing to an increased yard density at the terminal, and resulting in carriers blanking some services.

Source: Drewry, the Loadstar