DREWRY CONTAINER SHIPPING OUTLOOK
Shippers are being urged to brace for difficult months ahead as the global container shipping market faces escalating uncertainty. At a webinar attended by CLECAT this week, maritime analyst Drewry painted a bleak picture for global trade, with container throughput expected to decline significantly and operational challenges set to intensify.
According to Simon Heaney, Senior Manager of Container Research at Drewry, “The outlook for container shipping is more uncertain now than it was at the onset of the Covid virus.” While the world rapidly mobilised in response to the pandemic, today’s instability stems from political disruption and the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy, particularly in light of the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff strategy.
“As the US administration takes a chainsaw to the rule books on governance, foreign diplomacy, and international trade,” Heaney warned, “business shrivels in chaotic uncertainty, and very few are prepared to make significant investments in such a climate.”
In its latest global forecast, Drewry now expects a 1% decline in global container handling this year—comparable to the contraction experienced in 2020 at the height of the pandemic. This would mark only the third annual decline since Drewry began recording such data in 1979, following 2009 (down 8.4%) and 2020 (down 0.9%).
The situation is particularly grim in North America, where throughput is forecast to drop by 5.5% in 2025 - equivalent to around 4 million TEU - with an additional decline of 4.6% anticipated in 2026. A key concern is the continuation of high tariffs on Chinese imports: “If even two-thirds of the current 145% tariff remains, we’re looking at a loss of around 40% of volume on that trade,” Heaney said.
Philip Damas, Managing Director at Drewry, added that it’s unclear whether this will result in demand destruction or a reallocation of sourcing to other countries. “Shippers are increasingly looking to diversify, and recent surveys suggest a pivot towards India, Brazil, Vietnam, Malaysia, Poland, and Turkey, markets likely to see rising container volumes,” he said.
The short-term forecast remains volatile, with a 90-day pause on tariffs - set to expire in early July -leaving businesses in uncertainty. “We’re in coin-flip territory,” Heaney said, underlining how rapidly the situation can evolve. While reports suggest the Trump administration may ease tariffs on China, Drewry advises shippers to “pause shipments” to evaluate the impact.
This cautious approach could lead to a temporary dip in volumes through April and May, followed by a sharp surge in late June and early July as companies rush to replenish inventories before new penalties on Chinese vessels come into force in October. “These big swings in demand have implications for vessel capacity, availability, and freight rates,” warned Damas. “Shippers must plan accordingly and assess alternative sourcing strategies where possible.”
Source: The Loadstar