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Container freight rates on the Asia–Europe trade lane appear to be entering a new phase of rapid increases as the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East begins to affect global shipping markets. According to the latest data from the World Container Index (WCI) published by maritime consultancy Drewry, spot rates on the key Shanghai–Rotterdam route rose sharply this week, marking the first significant increase since the outbreak of the conflict in the region.

The index shows that the average cost of shipping a forty-foot container from Shanghai to Rotterdam climbed 19% in a single week, reaching USD 2,443, up from USD 2,052 the week before. The increase represents a clear reversal of the previous trend, as freight rates had been declining in recent weeks due to weaker cargo volumes following the Chinese New Year and growing concerns about excess capacity in the container fleet.

Industry analysts suggest that the latest increase may only be the beginning. Drewry expects further rises in the coming weeks as the full market impact of the developing “Hormuz crisis” becomes visible. Shipping analyst Lars Jensen noted that the first increase recorded by the index may still be relatively modest compared with previous market shocks. He pointed to the example of the Red Sea crisis at the end of 2023, when freight rates initially rose by around 16% before surging dramatically in the following weeks, eventually increasing by more than 100%. If a similar pattern were to emerge now, Asia–Europe rates could potentially climb to around USD 5,000 per forty-foot container or more.

Shipping lines have already begun signalling higher prices. Shortly after tensions escalated in the Middle East, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM announced new general rate increases targeting USD 4,000 per forty-foot container on the Asia–Europe trade. These increases are expected to take effect from 15 March.  Interestingly, the reverse trade from Europe to Asia has so far remained largely unaffected by the recent disruptions. Drewry data show that rates from Rotterdam to Asia actually declined slightly this week, falling by 3% to USD 528 per forty-foot container, reflecting the continued imbalance in cargo flows between the two regions.

Source: the Loadstar, Nieuwsblad Transport