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Global air freight market conditions remain stronger than previously anticipated, prompting Xeneta to significantly revise its outlook for 2026. In its mid-year Air Freight Outlook, the market intelligence provider now expects long-term contract rates to increase by 5% to 15% over the course of the year, reversing its earlier forecast of a 5% to 10% decline.

The upward revision reflects a combination of resilient demand and constrained capacity. According to Xeneta, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East temporarily removed around 12% of global air cargo capacity earlier this year. Although capacity has since recovered, it increased by only 1% during the first half of 2026, while demand grew by 4%, creating a tighter market and pushing both spot and contract rates higher. Combined air freight rates rose by 17% year-on-year during the first six months of the year.

The market continues to be supported by strong demand for semiconductor shipments linked to the expansion of AI infrastructure and data centres. At the same time, Xeneta expects cross-border e-commerce flows from China to Europe to weaken during the second half of the year as new EU measures affecting low-value imports begin to influence purchasing patterns.

For shippers, the revised outlook points to higher transport costs for the remainder of 2026, particularly as rising freight rates coincide with increased fuel surcharges. Xeneta expects demand growth of up to 4% for the full year, continuing to outpace available cargo capacity, which is forecast to expand by only 2% to 3%.

The revised forecast underlines the continued sensitivity of the air freight market to geopolitical developments. While capacity has recovered from the initial disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, the imbalance between supply and demand is expected to keep the market tight and support higher contract rates throughout the remainder of the year.