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Loadstar reported this week that Maersk has significantly upgraded its financial guidance for 2026, citing stronger-than-expected freight market conditions.  Maersk increased its full-year EBITDA forecast from USD 4.5-7 billion to USD 8-10 billion and also raised its outlook for global container market growth to 4%, up from its previous guidance of 2-4%.

According to industry analyst Alphaliner, the revised guidance points to a much stronger freight rate environment than anticipated only a few weeks ago. Industry consultant Lars Jensen estimated that the new forecast implies average freight rates could be USD 300–350 per 40-foot container higher than expected less than two months ago, with an implied increase of USD 400-467 per FEU during the remainder of the year?

The announcement has prompted renewed criticism from cargo owners, who argue that improved carrier earnings are being achieved through a combination of elevated spot rates, emergency surcharges and tighter capacity management. Several shippers interviewed by Loadstar also reported reductions in allocations under long-term contracts, while claiming that capacity became available again when accepting higher rates.

James Hookham, Director of the Global Shippers Forum (GSF), cautioned that the issue extends beyond higher freight rates themselves. He argued that the lack of transparency surrounding carrier surcharges risks undermining customer trust. As he noted, "What does stick in the throat is the lack of transparency on the surcharges (which are only supposed to recover additional costs, not inflate the profit forecast), and the acknowledged ability to 'manage' the undoubted excess capacity to create an apparently tight market."

Mr Hookham also warned that repeated surcharges and capacity management practices could ultimately damage long-term customer relationships, despite carriers' ambitions to build integrated logistics partnerships. He identified four market dynamics currently affecting shippers: the recovery of genuine additional costs on disrupted routes; higher fuel costs; the widespread application of general rate increases; and active management of excess capacity that limits available booking slots despite an overall oversupply of vessel capacity.

The developments are likely to reinforce calls from shippers and freight forwarders for greater transparency in carrier pricing practices, particularly regarding emergency and non-discretionary surcharges.